Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends
نویسندگان
چکیده
Direct measures of expectations are derived from survey data series in ̄ve European economies over the period 1968-1998. No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in tests applied to these derived series. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected output is then used to derive alternative measures of trend output and these measures are compared with the trend obtained using only actual data. The relative merits of the derived series are described with reference to their use of information and an illustative stochastic growth model is described in which the trends are interpretable as potential output measures.
منابع مشابه
Information , Business Survey Forecasts and Measurement of Output Trends in Six European Economies
Direct measures of expectations, derived from survey data, are used in a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model of actual and expected manufacturing output series in six European economies over the period 1968-1998. No evidence is found with which to reject rationality in the derived expectations series when measurement error is appropriately taken into account. The VAR analysis is used to derive me...
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